Betting Lines
| Spread | TOW -1.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 135.5 Over |
| Money | TOW -122 UNCW +102 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | TOW win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UNCW +9 | 155 | Lost |
| Massey | UNCW -0.2 (-8.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 127.0 (+28.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 36% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 33% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UNCW -0.7 (-8.3) | 130.9 (+24.1) | 47% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UNCW -1.1 (-7.9) | 130.4 (+24.6) | 50% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UNCW -0.1 (-8.9) | 127.6 (+27.4) | 48% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | TOW -0.0 (-9.0) | 129.9 (+25.1) | 42% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 3, 2025 | TOW 65 – 61 UNCW |
| Mar 10, 2024 | TOW 66 – 56 UNCW |
| Mar 2, 2024 | UNCW 75 – 64 TOW |
| Jan 6, 2024 | TOW 67 – 64 UNCW |
| Feb 26, 2023 | TOW 57 – 53 UNCW |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | TOW | UNCW |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 19-15 | 27-7 |
| Conference | 9-9 | 15-3 |
| Home | 11-3 | 15-4 |
| Away | 3-10 | 12-2 |
| Neutral | 5-2 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 67.1 | 74.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 66.4 | 68.1 |
| Massey | -0.4 (#175) | 3.0 (#125) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.07 (#162) | 1.21 (#78) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.02 (#164) | 1.32 (#89) |
| RPI | 0.528 (#118) | 0.552 (#79) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | TOW | UNCW |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 40.3% | 44.0% |
| 3PT% | 26.8% | 34.1% |
| REB / G | 38.2 | 39.6 |
| OREB / G | 14.4 | 12.9 |
| AST / TO | 0.84 | 1.23 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 45.2% | 50.4% |
| TOV% | 16.9% | 15.6% |
| ORB% | 37.5% | 36.3% |
| FT Rate | 20.2% | 31.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.2% | 47.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.9% | 15.3% |
| DRB% | 73.3% | 73.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.1% | 20.0% |
Game Analysis
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