Betting Lines
| Spread | UNCW -2.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 130.5 Under |
| Money | UNCW -163 TOW +125 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UNCW win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | TOW +10 | 122 | Lost |
| Massey | UNCW -2.5 (-12.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 133.5 (-11.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 65% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 71% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UNCW -2.6 (-12.6) | 130.4 (-8.4) | 51% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UNCW -3.4 (-13.4) | 133.7 (-11.7) | 64% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | UNCW -3.4 (-13.4) | 133.4 (-11.4) | 65% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UNCW -2.3 (-12.3) | 134.0 (-12.0) | 48% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 30, 2026 | UNCW 82 – 73 TOW |
| Jan 3, 2025 | TOW 65 – 61 UNCW |
| Mar 2, 2024 | UNCW 75 – 64 TOW |
| Jan 6, 2024 | TOW 67 – 64 UNCW |
| Feb 26, 2023 | TOW 57 – 53 UNCW |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UNCW | TOW |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 21-10 | 20-14 |
| Conference | 12-6 | 11-7 |
| Home | 10-2 | 12-2 |
| Away | 10-6 | 6-6 |
| Neutral | 1-2 | 2-6 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 75.8 | 66.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.6 | 64.2 |
| Massey | 3.6 (#115) | 1.1 (#153) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.80 (#111) | 0.18 (#149) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.06 (#107) | 0.16 (#153) |
| RPI | 0.549 (#93) | 0.515 (#145) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UNCW | TOW |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.8% | 41.6% |
| 3PT% | 33.4% | 32.6% |
| REB / G | 34.2 | 39.5 |
| OREB / G | 10.6 | 14.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.34 | 0.93 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.4% | 47.2% |
| TOV% | 12.8% | 18.9% |
| ORB% | 30.1% | 40.3% |
| FT Rate | 25.2% | 22.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.7% | 48.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.9% | 16.8% |
| DRB% | 69.5% | 72.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.7% | 21.9% |
Game Analysis
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