Betting Lines
| Spread | TOW -2.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 134.5 Under |
| Money | UNCW +130 TOW -120 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UNCW win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | TOW +4 | 110 | Lost |
| Massey | UNCW -1.9 (-5.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 132.7 (-22.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 81% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 82% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UNCW -2.0 (-6.0) | 139.4 (-29.4) | 59% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UNCW -0.7 (-4.7) | 135.2 (-25.2) | 56% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UNCW -2.5 (-6.5) | 140.6 (-30.6) | 62% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | UNCW -1.4 (-5.4) | 142.0 (-32.0) | 58% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 30, 2026 | UNCW 82 – 73 TOW |
| Jan 3, 2025 | TOW 65 – 61 UNCW |
| Mar 10, 2024 | TOW 66 – 56 UNCW |
| Mar 2, 2024 | UNCW 75 – 64 TOW |
| Jan 6, 2024 | TOW 67 – 64 UNCW |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UNCW | TOW |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 24-10 | 21-12 |
| Conference | 12-6 | 12-6 |
| Home | 11-3 | 10-2 |
| Away | 8-6 | 8-7 |
| Neutral | 5-1 | 3-3 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 67.0 | 71.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 65.2 | 66.7 |
| Massey | -0.4 (#178) | 1.2 (#144) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.09 (#83) | 0.25 (#149) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.09 (#101) | 0.33 (#147) |
| RPI | 0.556 (#74) | 0.507 (#167) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UNCW | TOW |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.0% | 44.6% |
| 3PT% | 33.6% | 37.6% |
| REB / G | 32.3 | 36.9 |
| OREB / G | 9.2 | 12.6 |
| AST / TO | 0.84 | 1.17 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.7% | 51.1% |
| TOV% | 18.4% | 18.3% |
| ORB% | 28.0% | 36.4% |
| FT Rate | 29.9% | 20.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.5% | 49.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.8% | 18.1% |
| DRB% | 71.7% | 72.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 26.0% | 21.5% |
Game Analysis
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