Betting Lines
| Spread | UNCW -2.0 Home covered |
| O/U | 131.0 Under |
| Money | TOW +118 UNCW -140 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | TOW win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | TOW +3 | 131 | Won |
| Massey | TOW -0.5 (+2.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 135.1 (-4.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 31% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 35% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UNCW -0.3 (+3.3) | 140.0 (-9.0) | 56% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | TOW -1.1 (+1.9) | 137.6 (-6.6) | 56% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | TOW -1.1 (+1.9) | 138.0 (-7.0) | 55% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | TOW -1.2 (+1.8) | 140.9 (-9.9) | 57% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 30, 2026 | UNCW 82 – 73 TOW |
| Jan 3, 2025 | TOW 65 – 61 UNCW |
| Mar 10, 2024 | TOW 66 – 56 UNCW |
| Mar 2, 2024 | UNCW 75 – 64 TOW |
| Feb 26, 2023 | TOW 57 – 53 UNCW |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | TOW | UNCW |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 20-14 | 21-10 |
| Conference | 11-7 | 12-6 |
| Home | 12-2 | 10-2 |
| Away | 6-6 | 10-6 |
| Neutral | 2-6 | 1-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 66.6 | 75.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 64.2 | 71.6 |
| Massey | -1.4 (#192) | 2.4 (#133) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.46 (#222) | 1.15 (#89) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.42 (#205) | 1.16 (#106) |
| RPI | 0.472 (#224) | 0.559 (#85) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | TOW | UNCW |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 39.1% | 42.0% |
| 3PT% | 29.8% | 32.4% |
| REB / G | 41.2 | 34.0 |
| OREB / G | 16.5 | 9.4 |
| AST / TO | 0.71 | 1.11 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 44.2% | 48.6% |
| TOV% | 20.8% | 12.5% |
| ORB% | 42.7% | 25.5% |
| FT Rate | 22.7% | 28.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.1% | 53.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.1% | 15.7% |
| DRB% | 73.3% | 71.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.1% | 28.2% |
Game Analysis
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