Betting Lines
| Spread | UNCW -3.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 133.5 Over |
| Money | UNCW -200 TOW +155 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UNCW win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UNCW +11 | 139 | Won |
| Massey | UNCW -5.5 (+5.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 134.6 (+4.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 76% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 82% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UNCW -4.6 (+6.4) | 131.5 (+7.5) | 67% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UNCW -5.2 (+5.8) | 132.8 (+6.2) | 72% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UNCW -5.3 (+5.7) | 134.5 (+4.5) | 73% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UNCW -4.8 (+6.2) | 134.5 (+4.5) | 65% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 30, 2026 | UNCW 82 – 73 TOW |
| Jan 3, 2025 | TOW 65 – 61 UNCW |
| Mar 10, 2024 | TOW 66 – 56 UNCW |
| Jan 6, 2024 | TOW 67 – 64 UNCW |
| Feb 26, 2023 | TOW 57 – 53 UNCW |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UNCW | TOW |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 21-10 | 20-14 |
| Conference | 12-6 | 11-7 |
| Home | 10-2 | 12-2 |
| Away | 10-6 | 6-6 |
| Neutral | 1-2 | 2-6 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 75.8 | 66.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.6 | 64.2 |
| Massey | 3.4 (#119) | 1.2 (#151) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.73 (#116) | 0.18 (#155) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.98 (#111) | 0.14 (#159) |
| RPI | 0.544 (#96) | 0.511 (#154) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UNCW | TOW |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.8% | 41.6% |
| 3PT% | 33.2% | 32.9% |
| REB / G | 34.6 | 39.6 |
| OREB / G | 10.5 | 14.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.36 | 0.95 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.4% | 47.2% |
| TOV% | 12.7% | 18.7% |
| ORB% | 29.8% | 40.0% |
| FT Rate | 24.6% | 22.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.7% | 48.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.3% | 16.9% |
| DRB% | 70.6% | 73.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.7% | 21.7% |
Game Analysis
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