Betting Lines
| Spread | UNCW -5.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 138.5 Under |
| Money | UNCW -240 TOW +200 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UNCW win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | TOW +4 | 126 | Lost |
| Massey | UNCW -9.8 (-13.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 135.3 (-9.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 85% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 88% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UNCW -7.0 (-11.0) | 134.2 (-8.2) | 78% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UNCW -8.0 (-12.0) | 133.4 (-7.4) | 76% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UNCW -7.6 (-11.6) | 135.1 (-9.1) | 80% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | UNCW -7.2 (-11.2) | 134.2 (-8.2) | 72% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 30, 2026 | UNCW 82 – 73 TOW |
| Mar 10, 2024 | TOW 66 – 56 UNCW |
| Mar 2, 2024 | UNCW 75 – 64 TOW |
| Jan 6, 2024 | TOW 67 – 64 UNCW |
| Feb 26, 2023 | TOW 57 – 53 UNCW |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UNCW | TOW |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 27-8 | 22-11 |
| Conference | 14-4 | 16-2 |
| Home | 15-3 | 12-1 |
| Away | 9-4 | 9-5 |
| Neutral | 3-1 | 1-5 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 76.6 | 69.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.3 | 67.7 |
| Massey | 0.5 (#152) | -5.2 (#262) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.25 (#144) | -0.74 (#235) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.07 (#158) | -1.06 (#248) |
| RPI | 0.506 (#154) | 0.476 (#212) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UNCW | TOW |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.2% | 38.3% |
| 3PT% | 29.3% | 27.7% |
| REB / G | 37.4 | 35.8 |
| OREB / G | 12.3 | 13.1 |
| AST / TO | 1.25 | 0.88 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.1% | 43.2% |
| TOV% | 14.7% | 16.1% |
| ORB% | 34.0% | 34.1% |
| FT Rate | 34.7% | 19.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.3% | 50.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.8% | 17.2% |
| DRB% | 70.2% | 71.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.8% | 25.3% |
Game Analysis
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