Betting Lines
| Spread | ILL -12.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 153.5 Under |
| Money | ILL -1000 WASH +650 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ILL win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ILL +9 | 141 | Won |
| Massey | ILL -13.4 (-4.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 152.9 (-11.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 96% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 98% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ILL -13.0 (-4.0) | 150.9 (-9.9) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ILL -12.7 (-3.7) | 148.8 (-7.8) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | ILL -13.4 (-4.4) | 149.2 (-8.2) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ILL -13.9 (-4.9) | 150.2 (-9.2) | 87% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 5, 2025 | ILL 81 – 77 WASH |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ILL | WASH |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 28-9 | 16-17 |
| Conference | 15-5 | 7-13 |
| Home | 14-3 | 10-6 |
| Away | 8-2 | 4-9 |
| Neutral | 6-4 | 2-2 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 83.2 | 77.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.8 | 73.6 |
| Massey | 22.3 (#6) | 12.1 (#45) |
| Bradley-Terry | 4.10 (#8) | 1.54 (#67) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 5.46 (#8) | 2.24 (#59) |
| RPI | 0.645 (#12) | 0.558 (#73) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ILL | WASH |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.1% | 44.9% |
| 3PT% | 36.0% | 31.4% |
| REB / G | 41.6 | 38.3 |
| OREB / G | 13.4 | 12.3 |
| AST / TO | 1.50 | 1.31 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 56.2% | 50.2% |
| TOV% | 14.4% | 15.0% |
| ORB% | 40.0% | 34.8% |
| FT Rate | 27.5% | 26.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.8% | 49.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 11.7% | 15.3% |
| DRB% | 73.2% | 71.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 13.5% | 23.4% |
Game Analysis
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