Betting Lines
| Spread | TROY -9.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 147.5 Under |
| Money | TROY -500 JMU +380 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | TROY win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | JMU +9 | 137 | Lost |
| Massey | TROY -11.0 (-20.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 161.3 (-24.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 90% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 90% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | TROY -10.9 (-19.9) | 155.7 (-18.7) | 84% ✗ |
| Model 4 ML ★ | TROY -11.2 (-20.2) | 154.1 (-17.1) | 85% ✗ |
| Model 3 ML | TROY -10.9 (-19.9) | 152.8 (-15.8) | 85% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | TROY -10.3 (-19.3) | 154.0 (-17.0) | 84% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 10, 2025 | TROY 79 – 60 JMU |
| Feb 6, 2025 | JMU 64 – 61 TROY |
| Mar 4, 2023 | JMU 75 – 72 TROY |
| Jan 20, 2023 | JMU 89 – 87 TROY |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | TROY | JMU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 22-12 | 18-15 |
| Conference | 12-6 | 9-9 |
| Home | 10-3 | 11-4 |
| Away | 9-7 | 5-10 |
| Neutral | 3-2 | 2-1 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 77.3 | 74.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.5 | 74.4 |
| Massey | 3.5 (#119) | -4.3 (#237) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.07 (#86) | -0.54 (#217) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.76 (#113) | -0.84 (#227) |
| RPI | 0.574 (#62) | 0.487 (#209) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | TROY | JMU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.4% | 44.3% |
| 3PT% | 35.6% | 36.6% |
| REB / G | 38.6 | 36.0 |
| OREB / G | 12.8 | 10.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.24 | 1.16 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.4% | 52.9% |
| TOV% | 17.0% | 17.4% |
| ORB% | 34.6% | 30.6% |
| FT Rate | 27.1% | 24.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.9% | 50.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.6% | 12.9% |
| DRB% | 67.9% | 68.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.5% | 31.2% |
Game Analysis
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