Betting Lines
| Spread | JMU -2.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 135.5 Under |
| Money | JMU -135 TROY +115 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | JMU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | JMU +3 | 125 | Won |
| Massey | TROY -0.4 (+3.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 137.3 (-12.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 63% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 58% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | JMU -0.4 (+2.6) | 133.6 (-8.6) | 53% ✓ |
| Model 4 ML ★ | JMU -1.3 (+1.7) | 132.9 (-7.9) | 61% ✓ |
| Model 3 ML | JMU -0.4 (+2.6) | 135.2 (-10.2) | 54% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | JMU -0.4 (+2.6) | 135.4 (-10.4) | 54% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 30, 2026 | JMU 73 – 64 TROY |
| Mar 10, 2025 | TROY 79 – 60 JMU |
| Mar 4, 2023 | JMU 75 – 72 TROY |
| Jan 20, 2023 | JMU 89 – 87 TROY |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | JMU | TROY |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 20-12 | 23-11 |
| Conference | 13-5 | 13-5 |
| Home | 13-2 | 11-4 |
| Away | 5-8 | 9-6 |
| Neutral | 2-2 | 3-1 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.3 | 72.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.3 | 66.3 |
| Massey | 0.4 (#159) | 4.0 (#108) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.49 (#128) | 0.51 (#127) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.54 (#133) | 0.86 (#109) |
| RPI | 0.554 (#78) | 0.536 (#111) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | JMU | TROY |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.7% | 43.9% |
| 3PT% | 33.7% | 30.8% |
| REB / G | 35.5 | 36.9 |
| OREB / G | 11.2 | 13.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.00 | 1.04 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.2% | 51.0% |
| TOV% | 17.5% | 21.2% |
| ORB% | 32.1% | 38.7% |
| FT Rate | 20.8% | 26.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.3% | 48.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.4% | 20.2% |
| DRB% | 74.4% | 68.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.0% | 18.5% |
Game Analysis
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