Betting Lines
| Spread | TROY -1.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 132.5 Over |
| Money | JMU +105 TROY -125 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | JMU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | TROY +19 | 139 | Lost |
| Massey | TROY -3.6 (-15.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 136.0 (+3.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 51% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 45% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | TROY -1.6 (-17.4) | 134.3 (+4.7) | 40% ✓ |
| Model 4 ML ★ | TROY -0.8 (-18.2) | 134.7 (+4.3) | 43% ✓ |
| Model 3 ML | TROY -2.5 (-16.5) | 139.3 (-0.3) | 43% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | TROY -1.8 (-17.2) | 138.4 (+0.6) | 39% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 30, 2026 | JMU 73 – 64 TROY |
| Feb 6, 2025 | JMU 64 – 61 TROY |
| Mar 4, 2023 | JMU 75 – 72 TROY |
| Jan 20, 2023 | JMU 89 – 87 TROY |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | JMU | TROY |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 20-12 | 23-11 |
| Conference | 13-5 | 13-5 |
| Home | 13-2 | 11-4 |
| Away | 5-8 | 9-6 |
| Neutral | 2-2 | 3-1 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.3 | 72.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.3 | 66.3 |
| Massey | -0.1 (#162) | 3.6 (#108) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.48 (#129) | 0.45 (#132) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.40 (#138) | 0.61 (#123) |
| RPI | 0.563 (#64) | 0.539 (#99) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | JMU | TROY |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.2% | 43.0% |
| 3PT% | 34.5% | 30.1% |
| REB / G | 34.6 | 37.6 |
| OREB / G | 11.2 | 13.7 |
| AST / TO | 1.09 | 1.02 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.0% | 49.8% |
| TOV% | 16.1% | 20.3% |
| ORB% | 32.1% | 38.8% |
| FT Rate | 22.8% | 26.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.9% | 47.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.5% | 20.2% |
| DRB% | 69.9% | 68.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.8% | 20.8% |
Game Analysis
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