Betting Lines
| Spread | JMU -4.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 146.0 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | JMU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | JMU +3 | 147 | Won |
| Massey | JMU -3.6 (-0.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 144.2 (+2.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 58% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 64% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | JMU -3.2 (-0.2) | 146.3 (+0.7) | 61% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | JMU -2.6 (+0.4) | 145.9 (+1.1) | 61% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | JMU -2.7 (+0.3) | 147.5 (-0.5) | 62% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | JMU -2.7 (+0.3) | 147.7 (-0.7) | 63% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 30, 2026 | JMU 73 – 64 TROY |
| Mar 10, 2025 | TROY 79 – 60 JMU |
| Feb 6, 2025 | JMU 64 – 61 TROY |
| Jan 20, 2023 | JMU 89 – 87 TROY |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | JMU | TROY |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 22-11 | 20-13 |
| Conference | 12-6 | 11-7 |
| Home | 11-3 | 11-3 |
| Away | 8-6 | 7-8 |
| Neutral | 2-2 | 2-2 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 77.6 | 70.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.4 | 67.8 |
| Massey | 6.5 (#84) | 2.9 (#127) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.72 (#110) | 0.41 (#136) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.12 (#96) | 0.55 (#130) |
| RPI | 0.539 (#103) | 0.540 (#100) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | JMU | TROY |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.3% | 43.2% |
| 3PT% | 35.3% | 31.7% |
| REB / G | 36.6 | 34.1 |
| OREB / G | 11.1 | 10.7 |
| AST / TO | 0.92 | 1.02 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.0% | 49.7% |
| TOV% | 18.8% | 18.8% |
| ORB% | 30.9% | 30.5% |
| FT Rate | 27.8% | 22.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.3% | 48.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 22.0% | 21.1% |
| DRB% | 71.9% | 70.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.3% | 26.5% |
Game Analysis
Loading game analysis…
Failed to load game analysis.