Betting Lines
| Spread | MONM -9.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 144.5 Over |
| Money | MONM -535 NCAT +400 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MONM win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MONM +2 | 164 | Won |
| Massey | MONM -8.1 (-6.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 146.7 (+17.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 71% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 81% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MONM -6.4 (-4.4) | 141.0 (+23.0) | 80% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MONM -5.9 (-3.9) | 141.2 (+22.8) | 76% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MONM -5.8 (-3.8) | 142.8 (+21.2) | 76% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MONM -6.0 (-4.0) | 142.8 (+21.2) | 77% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 17, 2025 | MONM 72 – 63 NCAT |
| Feb 24, 2024 | MONM 83 – 67 NCAT |
| Feb 14, 2023 | MONM 85 – 71 NCAT |
| Jan 28, 2023 | MONM 79 – 64 NCAT |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MONM | NCAT |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 19-15 | 11-19 |
| Conference | 11-7 | 4-14 |
| Home | 10-4 | 6-6 |
| Away | 6-9 | 4-11 |
| Neutral | 3-2 | 1-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L4 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.0 | 73.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.9 | 78.5 |
| Massey | -1.7 (#193) | -6.7 (#263) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.64 (#225) | -0.94 (#249) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.72 (#217) | -1.53 (#269) |
| RPI | 0.469 (#231) | 0.451 (#259) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MONM | NCAT |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.6% | 44.4% |
| 3PT% | 34.9% | 31.7% |
| REB / G | 35.5 | 38.1 |
| OREB / G | 10.9 | 11.3 |
| AST / TO | 1.18 | 0.89 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.2% | 49.8% |
| TOV% | 17.8% | 18.8% |
| ORB% | 31.6% | 32.8% |
| FT Rate | 25.2% | 33.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.9% | 52.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.0% | 14.0% |
| DRB% | 66.8% | 72.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.5% | 27.8% |
Game Analysis
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