Betting Lines
| Spread | MONM -2.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 152.5 Under |
| Money | NCAT +115 MONM -135 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | NCAT win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MONM +9 | 135 | Lost |
| Massey | NCAT -1.5 (-10.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 153.2 (-18.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 43% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 42% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MONM -1.2 (-7.8) | 149.9 (-14.9) | 37% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MONM -0.3 (-8.7) | 146.6 (-11.6) | 48% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MONM -0.1 (-8.9) | 146.7 (-11.7) | 43% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MONM -0.5 (-8.5) | 150.4 (-15.4) | 38% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 30, 2026 | MONM 83 – 81 NCAT |
| Feb 24, 2024 | MONM 83 – 67 NCAT |
| Feb 14, 2023 | MONM 85 – 71 NCAT |
| Jan 28, 2023 | MONM 79 – 64 NCAT |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | NCAT | MONM |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 7-25 | 13-20 |
| Conference | 3-15 | 10-8 |
| Home | 5-9 | 8-2 |
| Away | 2-15 | 4-14 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 1-4 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L3 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 67.9 | 70.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 76.9 | 75.4 |
| Massey | -9.2 (#314) | -6.9 (#278) |
| Bradley-Terry | -2.52 (#345) | -1.57 (#307) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -3.01 (#341) | -1.91 (#304) |
| RPI | 0.391 (#340) | 0.431 (#291) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | NCAT | MONM |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 40.8% | 39.3% |
| 3PT% | 32.2% | 36.0% |
| REB / G | 35.4 | 34.1 |
| OREB / G | 10.4 | 11.5 |
| AST / TO | 1.16 | 0.91 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 46.3% | 45.7% |
| TOV% | 13.4% | 17.8% |
| ORB% | 25.2% | 30.7% |
| FT Rate | 21.4% | 26.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.6% | 52.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.1% | 17.5% |
| DRB% | 67.4% | 65.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.7% | 27.3% |
Game Analysis
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