Betting Lines
| Spread | MONM -11.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 145.5 Over |
| Money | MONM -700 NCAT +600 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MONM win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MONM +16 | 150 | Won |
| Massey | MONM -14.6 (+1.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 146.4 (+3.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 93% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 96% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MONM -11.6 (+4.4) | 144.9 (+5.1) | 88% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MONM -10.5 (+5.5) | 143.1 (+6.9) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MONM -12.1 (+3.9) | 144.1 (+5.9) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MONM -11.5 (+4.5) | 143.8 (+6.2) | 88% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 30, 2026 | MONM 83 – 81 NCAT |
| Jan 17, 2025 | MONM 72 – 63 NCAT |
| Feb 14, 2023 | MONM 85 – 71 NCAT |
| Jan 28, 2023 | MONM 79 – 64 NCAT |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MONM | NCAT |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 18-15 | 7-25 |
| Conference | 10-8 | 5-13 |
| Home | 13-1 | 4-7 |
| Away | 2-13 | 2-14 |
| Neutral | 3-1 | 1-4 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 0-5 |
| Streak | L1 | L10 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.4 | 65.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.6 | 77.9 |
| Massey | -1.7 (#189) | -13.0 (#341) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.17 (#155) | -1.77 (#321) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.16 (#159) | -2.29 (#325) |
| RPI | 0.513 (#153) | 0.435 (#301) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MONM | NCAT |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.0% | 39.3% |
| 3PT% | 35.8% | 29.0% |
| REB / G | 34.9 | 31.1 |
| OREB / G | 10.8 | 9.1 |
| AST / TO | 1.17 | 1.11 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.5% | 44.5% |
| TOV% | 15.7% | 13.8% |
| ORB% | 29.7% | 23.9% |
| FT Rate | 21.6% | 24.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.4% | 54.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.1% | 16.5% |
| DRB% | 67.1% | 65.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.5% | 21.1% |
Game Analysis
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