Betting Lines
| Spread | NCAT -2.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 140.5 Over |
| Money | MONM +115 NCAT -150 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MONM win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MONM +14 | 156 | Won |
| Massey | NCAT -3.0 (+17.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 140.8 (+15.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 52% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 53% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | NCAT -2.1 (+16.1) | 140.4 (+15.6) | 43% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | NCAT -1.4 (+15.4) | 139.8 (+16.2) | 51% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | NCAT -1.8 (+15.8) | 139.4 (+16.6) | 42% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | NCAT -1.8 (+15.8) | 139.8 (+16.2) | 43% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 30, 2026 | MONM 83 – 81 NCAT |
| Jan 17, 2025 | MONM 72 – 63 NCAT |
| Feb 24, 2024 | MONM 83 – 67 NCAT |
| Jan 28, 2023 | MONM 79 – 64 NCAT |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MONM | NCAT |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 7-26 | 13-19 |
| Conference | 5-13 | 8-10 |
| Home | 3-10 | 8-5 |
| Away | 3-15 | 4-10 |
| Neutral | 1-1 | 1-4 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 61.7 | 68.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.7 | 75.6 |
| Massey | -14.2 (#355) | -7.6 (#301) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.41 (#300) | -0.83 (#258) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.84 (#309) | -1.23 (#269) |
| RPI | 0.463 (#255) | 0.470 (#235) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MONM | NCAT |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 39.1% | 41.6% |
| 3PT% | 27.0% | 32.3% |
| REB / G | 32.3 | 33.8 |
| OREB / G | 11.0 | 8.4 |
| AST / TO | 0.73 | 0.87 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 42.7% | 48.3% |
| TOV% | 21.9% | 17.7% |
| ORB% | 29.8% | 23.4% |
| FT Rate | 20.6% | 20.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 55.2% | 50.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 21.0% | 15.8% |
| DRB% | 66.3% | 70.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 27.2% | 21.0% |
Game Analysis
Loading game analysis…
Failed to load game analysis.