Betting Lines
| Spread | NCAT -11.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 140.5 Over |
| Money | NCAT -700 MONM +550 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | NCAT win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MONM +15 | 143 | Lost |
| Massey | NCAT -15.0 (-30.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 141.9 (+1.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 96% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 98% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | NCAT -10.7 (-25.7) | 139.4 (+3.6) | 86% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | NCAT -9.2 (-24.2) | 139.9 (+3.1) | 81% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | NCAT -11.5 (-26.5) | 140.9 (+2.1) | 87% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | NCAT -10.6 (-25.6) | 140.6 (+2.4) | 85% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 30, 2026 | MONM 83 – 81 NCAT |
| Jan 17, 2025 | MONM 72 – 63 NCAT |
| Feb 24, 2024 | MONM 83 – 67 NCAT |
| Feb 14, 2023 | MONM 85 – 71 NCAT |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | NCAT | MONM |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 13-19 | 7-26 |
| Conference | 8-10 | 5-13 |
| Home | 8-5 | 3-10 |
| Away | 4-10 | 3-15 |
| Neutral | 1-4 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 0-5 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 68.2 | 61.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 75.6 | 74.7 |
| Massey | -5.3 (#257) | -16.8 (#359) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.47 (#221) | -2.94 (#355) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.72 (#229) | -3.75 (#357) |
| RPI | 0.483 (#211) | 0.426 (#306) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | NCAT | MONM |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.5% | 38.2% |
| 3PT% | 34.0% | 26.0% |
| REB / G | 34.3 | 31.9 |
| OREB / G | 8.3 | 11.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.89 | 0.70 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.4% | 41.9% |
| TOV% | 17.7% | 23.2% |
| ORB% | 23.6% | 29.8% |
| FT Rate | 19.8% | 19.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.8% | 56.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.0% | 20.6% |
| DRB% | 70.6% | 65.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.3% | 27.9% |
Game Analysis
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