Betting Lines
| Spread | APSU -7.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 150.5 Over |
| Money | WGA +295 APSU -375 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | WGA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | APSU +3 | 159 | Lost |
| Massey | APSU -7.9 (+4.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 148.3 (+10.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 27% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 17% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | APSU -6.5 (+3.5) | 147.4 (+11.6) | 27% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | APSU -7.6 (+4.6) | 143.8 (+15.2) | 24% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | APSU -7.6 (+4.6) | 144.4 (+14.6) | 23% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | APSU -7.6 (+4.6) | 147.3 (+11.7) | 25% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 27, 2025 | WGA 73 – 70 APSU |
| Jan 10, 2025 | WGA 72 – 68 APSU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | WGA | APSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 15-17 | 22-9 |
| Conference | 8-10 | 15-3 |
| Home | 10-5 | 12-1 |
| Away | 4-11 | 9-7 |
| Neutral | 1-1 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 75.3 | 79.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 80.5 | 74.6 |
| Massey | -10.5 (#317) | 0.5 (#157) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.22 (#282) | 0.34 (#133) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.99 (#304) | 0.23 (#145) |
| RPI | 0.454 (#258) | 0.532 (#111) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | WGA | APSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.1% | 44.0% |
| 3PT% | 34.7% | 34.0% |
| REB / G | 34.9 | 35.6 |
| OREB / G | 11.9 | 10.9 |
| AST / TO | 1.00 | 1.35 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.9% | 50.8% |
| TOV% | 17.0% | 15.8% |
| ORB% | 31.7% | 29.6% |
| FT Rate | 20.8% | 24.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 55.7% | 51.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.1% | 20.3% |
| DRB% | 69.3% | 69.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 25.1% | 22.2% |
Game Analysis
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