Betting Lines
| Spread | APSU -8.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 131.5 Over |
| Money | APSU -380 WGA +290 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | APSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | WGA +4 | 140 | Lost |
| Massey | APSU -8.5 (-12.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 127.9 (+12.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 97% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 99% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | APSU -4.6 (-8.6) | 133.5 (+6.5) | 51% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | APSU -5.0 (-9.0) | 133.5 (+6.5) | 67% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | APSU -6.1 (-10.1) | 133.9 (+6.1) | 54% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | APSU -4.8 (-8.8) | 135.5 (+4.5) | 52% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 31, 2026 | APSU 81 – 78 WGA |
| Feb 27, 2025 | WGA 73 – 70 APSU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | APSU | WGA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 14-19 | 6-25 |
| Conference | 8-10 | 4-14 |
| Home | 8-5 | 4-8 |
| Away | 4-13 | 2-15 |
| Neutral | 2-1 | 0-2 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | W1 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.1 | 67.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 75.8 | 78.8 |
| Massey | -7.5 (#291) | -11.9 (#341) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.58 (#222) | -3.17 (#352) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.94 (#236) | -4.49 (#357) |
| RPI | 0.478 (#204) | 0.375 (#350) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | APSU | WGA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 38.1% | 41.5% |
| 3PT% | 27.4% | 30.3% |
| REB / G | 31.5 | 31.9 |
| OREB / G | 9.9 | 10.1 |
| AST / TO | 0.82 | 1.05 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 43.2% | 46.0% |
| TOV% | 17.9% | 17.0% |
| ORB% | 26.5% | 27.0% |
| FT Rate | 23.7% | 16.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 53.4% | 55.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.8% | 17.6% |
| DRB% | 67.5% | 68.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 28.6% | 27.0% |
Game Analysis
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