Betting Lines
| Spread | MICH -2.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 149.5 Over |
| Money | MSU +120 MICH -142 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MICH +12 | 154 | Lost |
| Massey | MICH -4.8 (-7.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 149.2 (+4.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 50% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 42% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MICH -0.5 (-11.5) | 144.2 (+9.8) | 43% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MICH -0.5 (-11.5) | 146.7 (+7.3) | 48% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MICH -1.3 (-10.7) | 146.7 (+7.3) | 45% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MICH -0.6 (-11.4) | 146.0 (+8.0) | 36% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 8, 2026 | MICH 90 – 80 MSU |
| Mar 9, 2025 | MSU 79 – 62 MICH |
| Feb 22, 2025 | MSU 75 – 62 MICH |
| Feb 18, 2024 | MSU 73 – 63 MICH |
| Jan 31, 2024 | MSU 81 – 62 MICH |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MSU | MICH |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 27-8 | 37-3 |
| Conference | 15-5 | 19-1 |
| Home | 15-2 | 14-1 |
| Away | 6-4 | 11-0 |
| Neutral | 6-2 | 12-2 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L1 | W6 |
| Avg Pts For | 78.8 | 87.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.3 | 69.5 |
| Massey | 21.3 (#10) | 29.3 (#1) |
| Bradley-Terry | 4.27 (#7) | 4.83 (#5) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 5.77 (#6) | 6.71 (#5) |
| RPI | 0.656 (#8) | 0.696 (#1) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MSU | MICH |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.9% | 51.5% |
| 3PT% | 35.9% | 34.5% |
| REB / G | 41.4 | 42.0 |
| OREB / G | 13.0 | 11.3 |
| AST / TO | 1.55 | 1.50 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 54.4% | 59.0% |
| TOV% | 18.0% | 16.9% |
| ORB% | 39.5% | 35.6% |
| FT Rate | 27.2% | 30.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 45.8% | 43.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.3% | 17.2% |
| DRB% | 78.6% | 72.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.0% | 18.6% |
Game Analysis
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