Betting Lines
| Spread | MICH -3.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 150.5 Under |
| Money | MICH -155 MSU +135 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MICH win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MSU +13 | 137 | Lost |
| Massey | MICH -3.4 (-16.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 152.2 (-15.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 68% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 72% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MICH -3.4 (-16.4) | 149.6 (-12.6) | 67% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MICH -0.8 (-13.8) | 150.2 (-13.2) | 57% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MICH -3.6 (-16.6) | 149.1 (-12.1) | 63% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | MICH -3.5 (-16.5) | 147.6 (-10.6) | 65% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 8, 2026 | MICH 90 – 80 MSU |
| Jan 31, 2026 | MICH 83 – 71 MSU |
| Mar 9, 2025 | MSU 79 – 62 MICH |
| Feb 18, 2024 | MSU 73 – 63 MICH |
| Jan 31, 2024 | MSU 81 – 62 MICH |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MICH | MSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 27-10 | 30-7 |
| Conference | 14-6 | 17-3 |
| Home | 13-3 | 15-1 |
| Away | 7-3 | 8-2 |
| Neutral | 7-4 | 7-4 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 78.0 | 77.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.5 | 67.1 |
| Massey | 18.1 (#16) | 17.9 (#18) |
| Bradley-Terry | 3.21 (#12) | 3.02 (#16) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 4.25 (#9) | 3.94 (#15) |
| RPI | 0.641 (#8) | 0.621 (#17) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MICH | MSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 49.0% | 47.0% |
| 3PT% | 36.0% | 29.1% |
| REB / G | 38.3 | 39.8 |
| OREB / G | 11.1 | 11.9 |
| AST / TO | 1.16 | 1.50 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 56.9% | 51.7% |
| TOV% | 20.2% | 17.0% |
| ORB% | 34.4% | 36.6% |
| FT Rate | 26.4% | 31.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.8% | 46.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.1% | 16.4% |
| DRB% | 70.4% | 74.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.3% | 22.5% |
Game Analysis
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