Betting Lines
| Spread | MSU -7.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 148.5 Under |
| Money | MSU -320 MICH +260 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MSU +17 | 141 | Won |
| Massey | MSU -6.1 (+10.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 147.8 (-6.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 77% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 81% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MSU -7.9 (+9.1) | 140.6 (+0.4) | 80% ✓ |
| Model 4 ML ★ | MSU -8.4 (+8.6) | 143.3 (-2.3) | 81% ✓ |
| Model 3 ML | MSU -7.0 (+10.0) | 144.0 (-3.0) | 77% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MSU -6.9 (+10.1) | 141.4 (-0.4) | 73% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 8, 2026 | MICH 90 – 80 MSU |
| Jan 31, 2026 | MICH 83 – 71 MSU |
| Feb 22, 2025 | MSU 75 – 62 MICH |
| Feb 18, 2024 | MSU 73 – 63 MICH |
| Jan 31, 2024 | MSU 81 – 62 MICH |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MSU | MICH |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 30-7 | 27-10 |
| Conference | 17-3 | 14-6 |
| Home | 15-1 | 13-3 |
| Away | 8-2 | 7-3 |
| Neutral | 7-4 | 7-4 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 77.7 | 78.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.1 | 71.5 |
| Massey | 18.9 (#14) | 16.1 (#24) |
| Bradley-Terry | 3.46 (#7) | 2.83 (#20) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 4.42 (#8) | 3.60 (#21) |
| RPI | 0.637 (#8) | 0.615 (#17) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MSU | MICH |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.3% | 48.1% |
| 3PT% | 29.9% | 34.3% |
| REB / G | 40.1 | 38.0 |
| OREB / G | 12.0 | 10.9 |
| AST / TO | 1.48 | 1.12 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.2% | 55.4% |
| TOV% | 16.6% | 20.1% |
| ORB% | 35.9% | 33.4% |
| FT Rate | 29.2% | 25.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.0% | 46.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.4% | 16.6% |
| DRB% | 75.0% | 70.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.0% | 19.7% |
Game Analysis
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