Betting Lines
| Spread | MSU -5.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 145.5 Under |
| Money | MICH +188 MSU -250 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MICH win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MSU +10 | 136 | Lost |
| Massey | MSU -7.4 (-2.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 145.6 (-9.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 29% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 26% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MSU -6.0 (-4.0) | 141.9 (-5.9) | 28% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MSU -6.1 (-3.9) | 140.8 (-4.8) | 25% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MSU -6.7 (-3.3) | 143.3 (-7.3) | 24% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MSU -6.2 (-3.8) | 141.7 (-5.7) | 25% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 8, 2026 | MICH 90 – 80 MSU |
| Jan 31, 2026 | MICH 83 – 71 MSU |
| Mar 9, 2025 | MSU 79 – 62 MICH |
| Feb 22, 2025 | MSU 75 – 62 MICH |
| Jan 31, 2024 | MSU 81 – 62 MICH |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MICH | MSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 8-24 | 20-15 |
| Conference | 3-17 | 10-10 |
| Home | 5-10 | 14-4 |
| Away | 2-9 | 3-7 |
| Neutral | 1-5 | 3-4 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L9 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.9 | 72.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 79.0 | 66.1 |
| Massey | 4.8 (#106) | 15.6 (#16) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.36 (#145) | 1.89 (#48) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.87 (#121) | 2.58 (#32) |
| RPI | 0.520 (#136) | 0.583 (#47) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MICH | MSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.4% | 47.6% |
| 3PT% | 36.3% | 37.2% |
| REB / G | 36.2 | 34.7 |
| OREB / G | 10.9 | 9.9 |
| AST / TO | 1.02 | 1.73 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.3% | 53.3% |
| TOV% | 18.0% | 14.7% |
| ORB% | 31.7% | 29.7% |
| FT Rate | 22.9% | 21.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.0% | 47.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 13.9% | 18.8% |
| DRB% | 68.8% | 71.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.4% | 23.3% |
Game Analysis
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