Betting Lines
| Spread | MICH -10.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 152.5 Over |
| Money | MICH -575 MSU +425 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MICH win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MICH +10 | 170 | Won |
| Massey | MICH -12.7 (-2.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 151.4 (+18.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 86% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 92% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MICH -12.2 (-2.2) | 147.1 (+22.9) | 86% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MICH -11.4 (-1.4) | 151.6 (+18.4) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MICH -13.5 (-3.5) | 147.1 (+22.9) | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MICH -12.3 (-2.3) | 147.9 (+22.1) | 85% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 31, 2026 | MICH 83 – 71 MSU |
| Mar 9, 2025 | MSU 79 – 62 MICH |
| Feb 22, 2025 | MSU 75 – 62 MICH |
| Feb 18, 2024 | MSU 73 – 63 MICH |
| Jan 31, 2024 | MSU 81 – 62 MICH |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MICH | MSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 37-3 | 27-8 |
| Conference | 19-1 | 15-5 |
| Home | 14-1 | 15-2 |
| Away | 11-0 | 6-4 |
| Neutral | 12-2 | 6-2 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 5-0 |
| Streak | W6 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 87.3 | 78.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.5 | 68.3 |
| Massey | 30.0 (#1) | 20.3 (#11) |
| Bradley-Terry | 5.03 (#2) | 3.74 (#8) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 6.55 (#2) | 4.63 (#9) |
| RPI | 0.685 (#1) | 0.644 (#4) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MICH | MSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 51.1% | 47.2% |
| 3PT% | 36.2% | 35.6% |
| REB / G | 40.6 | 40.3 |
| OREB / G | 11.3 | 12.7 |
| AST / TO | 1.56 | 1.58 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 58.8% | 53.7% |
| TOV% | 16.9% | 17.3% |
| ORB% | 36.3% | 38.7% |
| FT Rate | 28.5% | 27.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 44.0% | 47.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.1% | 14.9% |
| DRB% | 71.9% | 77.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.6% | 22.3% |
Game Analysis
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