Betting Lines
| Spread | NOLA -4.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 153.5 Under |
| Money | NOLA -205 NWST +170 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | NOLA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | NOLA +11 | 139 | Won |
| Massey | NOLA -7.2 (+3.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 158.7 (-19.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 84% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | NOLA -4.8 (+6.2) | 150.3 (-11.3) | 65% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | NOLA -4.3 (+6.7) | 148.5 (-9.5) | 69% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | NOLA -5.1 (+5.9) | 148.7 (-9.7) | 71% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | NOLA -5.0 (+6.0) | 150.8 (-11.8) | 60% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 3, 2026 | NWST 74 – 68 NOLA |
| Feb 22, 2025 | NWST 73 – 66 NOLA |
| Jan 20, 2025 | NWST 73 – 61 NOLA |
| Feb 13, 2024 | NWST 70 – 59 NOLA |
| Jan 20, 2024 | NWST 92 – 67 NOLA |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | NOLA | NWST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 15-18 | 10-22 |
| Conference | 12-10 | 8-14 |
| Home | 5-6 | 8-6 |
| Away | 9-11 | 2-15 |
| Neutral | 1-1 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L3 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.5 | 66.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 77.7 | 72.9 |
| Massey | -2.8 (#208) | -6.8 (#271) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.52 (#217) | -1.61 (#308) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.60 (#213) | -1.98 (#302) |
| RPI | 0.484 (#213) | 0.411 (#327) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | NOLA | NWST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.3% | 44.3% |
| 3PT% | 33.3% | 34.9% |
| REB / G | 37.3 | 28.7 |
| OREB / G | 12.1 | 8.3 |
| AST / TO | 0.84 | 0.89 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.3% | 50.5% |
| TOV% | 21.2% | 18.8% |
| ORB% | 35.6% | 26.0% |
| FT Rate | 31.5% | 31.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.8% | 56.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 13.9% | 16.9% |
| DRB% | 64.2% | 65.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 28.8% | 28.8% |
Game Analysis
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