Betting Lines
| Spread | MTSU -6.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 140.5 Under |
| Money | MTSU -285 WKU +230 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MTSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | WKU +5 | 125 | Lost |
| Massey | MTSU -4.6 (-9.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 146.3 (-21.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 71% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 72% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MTSU -4.1 (-9.1) | 140.5 (-15.5) | 69% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MTSU -3.8 (-8.8) | 139.3 (-14.3) | 68% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | MTSU -3.6 (-8.6) | 139.5 (-14.5) | 66% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MTSU -3.7 (-8.7) | 141.2 (-16.2) | 65% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 15, 2026 | WKU 82 – 80 MTSU |
| Feb 16, 2025 | MTSU 87 – 77 WKU |
| Jan 19, 2025 | MTSU 71 – 57 WKU |
| Mar 15, 2024 | WKU 85 – 54 MTSU |
| Feb 25, 2024 | MTSU 74 – 72 WKU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MTSU | WKU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 17-15 | 18-14 |
| Conference | 11-9 | 11-9 |
| Home | 11-4 | 12-4 |
| Away | 5-8 | 5-7 |
| Neutral | 1-3 | 1-3 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L3 |
| Avg Pts For | 73.5 | 77.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.6 | 77.0 |
| Massey | 1.5 (#143) | 0.0 (#162) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.24 (#148) | -0.10 (#183) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.15 (#151) | -0.18 (#182) |
| RPI | 0.551 (#79) | 0.501 (#175) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MTSU | WKU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.2% | 39.3% |
| 3PT% | 35.4% | 31.8% |
| REB / G | 35.5 | 40.5 |
| OREB / G | 10.6 | 14.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.11 | 1.13 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.1% | 45.5% |
| TOV% | 17.5% | 14.9% |
| ORB% | 29.9% | 33.8% |
| FT Rate | 19.2% | 29.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.1% | 51.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 14.6% | 17.7% |
| DRB% | 70.8% | 70.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 26.5% | 29.8% |
Game Analysis
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