Betting Lines
| Spread | MTSU -5.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 157.5 Under |
| Money | MTSU -215 WKU +180 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MTSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MTSU +14 | 128 | Won |
| Massey | MTSU -6.0 (+8.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 154.6 (-26.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 79% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 83% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MTSU -5.6 (+8.4) | 153.4 (-25.4) | 74% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MTSU -3.4 (+10.6) | 152.2 (-24.2) | 69% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MTSU -5.1 (+8.9) | 148.7 (-20.7) | 73% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MTSU -6.1 (+7.9) | 149.6 (-21.6) | 77% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 15, 2026 | WKU 82 – 80 MTSU |
| Jan 31, 2026 | WKU 65 – 60 MTSU |
| Feb 16, 2025 | MTSU 87 – 77 WKU |
| Mar 15, 2024 | WKU 85 – 54 MTSU |
| Feb 25, 2024 | MTSU 74 – 72 WKU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MTSU | WKU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 22-12 | 17-15 |
| Conference | 12-6 | 8-10 |
| Home | 11-5 | 13-5 |
| Away | 8-5 | 4-9 |
| Neutral | 3-2 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L2 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 75.2 | 73.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 73.8 | 74.8 |
| Massey | 3.9 (#106) | 1.5 (#144) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.18 (#80) | 0.51 (#127) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.14 (#94) | 0.32 (#155) |
| RPI | 0.585 (#46) | 0.533 (#122) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MTSU | WKU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.6% | 42.1% |
| 3PT% | 31.5% | 32.8% |
| REB / G | 38.1 | 38.3 |
| OREB / G | 12.0 | 8.5 |
| AST / TO | 0.96 | 0.88 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.4% | 48.3% |
| TOV% | 17.2% | 16.3% |
| ORB% | 32.5% | 21.8% |
| FT Rate | 22.5% | 26.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.9% | 46.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.9% | 18.0% |
| DRB% | 70.8% | 72.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.6% | 28.9% |
Game Analysis
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