Betting Lines
| Spread | WKU -5.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 150.5 Under |
| Money | WKU -250 MTSU +188 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | WKU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | WKU +31 | 139 | Won |
| Massey | WKU -7.3 (+23.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 145.9 (-6.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 66% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 73% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | WKU -5.4 (+25.6) | 145.2 (-6.2) | 72% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | WKU -6.7 (+24.3) | 144.6 (-5.6) | 77% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | WKU -6.3 (+24.7) | 147.0 (-8.0) | 76% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | WKU -6.5 (+24.5) | 143.1 (-4.1) | 75% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 15, 2026 | WKU 82 – 80 MTSU |
| Jan 31, 2026 | WKU 65 – 60 MTSU |
| Feb 16, 2025 | MTSU 87 – 77 WKU |
| Jan 19, 2025 | MTSU 71 – 57 WKU |
| Feb 25, 2024 | MTSU 74 – 72 WKU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | WKU | MTSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 22-12 | 14-19 |
| Conference | 8-8 | 7-9 |
| Home | 12-2 | 11-6 |
| Away | 6-7 | 1-10 |
| Neutral | 4-3 | 2-3 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 78.8 | 64.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.7 | 71.3 |
| Massey | 1.1 (#153) | -6.1 (#275) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.13 (#156) | -0.55 (#230) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.33 (#148) | -0.68 (#231) |
| RPI | 0.511 (#152) | 0.464 (#259) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | WKU | MTSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.5% | 39.8% |
| 3PT% | 34.0% | 31.3% |
| REB / G | 38.9 | 34.2 |
| OREB / G | 10.4 | 10.2 |
| AST / TO | 0.94 | 0.69 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.7% | 46.3% |
| TOV% | 18.5% | 20.4% |
| ORB% | 28.8% | 28.6% |
| FT Rate | 22.9% | 24.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.7% | 49.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.2% | 15.7% |
| DRB% | 73.0% | 69.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.3% | 21.9% |
Game Analysis
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