Betting Lines
| Spread | WKU -3.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 150.5 Under |
| Money | MTSU +138 WKU -175 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MTSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MTSU +2 | 146 | Won |
| Massey | WKU -5.8 (+7.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 144.3 (+1.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 30% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 27% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | WKU -4.9 (+6.9) | 148.9 (-2.9) | 34% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | WKU -3.7 (+5.7) | 147.2 (-1.2) | 38% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | WKU -5.3 (+7.3) | 144.6 (+1.4) | 32% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | WKU -4.8 (+6.8) | 147.1 (-1.1) | 30% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 15, 2026 | WKU 82 – 80 MTSU |
| Jan 31, 2026 | WKU 65 – 60 MTSU |
| Feb 16, 2025 | MTSU 87 – 77 WKU |
| Jan 19, 2025 | MTSU 71 – 57 WKU |
| Mar 15, 2024 | WKU 85 – 54 MTSU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MTSU | WKU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 14-19 | 22-12 |
| Conference | 7-9 | 8-8 |
| Home | 11-6 | 12-2 |
| Away | 1-10 | 6-7 |
| Neutral | 2-3 | 4-3 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 64.4 | 78.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.3 | 74.7 |
| Massey | -7.3 (#292) | 1.8 (#141) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.88 (#264) | 0.59 (#125) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.96 (#255) | 0.71 (#129) |
| RPI | 0.447 (#284) | 0.533 (#120) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MTSU | WKU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 40.1% | 46.8% |
| 3PT% | 30.4% | 34.3% |
| REB / G | 34.5 | 39.2 |
| OREB / G | 10.6 | 10.3 |
| AST / TO | 0.66 | 0.93 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 46.5% | 52.0% |
| TOV% | 21.6% | 18.8% |
| ORB% | 29.9% | 28.7% |
| FT Rate | 22.4% | 22.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.1% | 47.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.8% | 18.3% |
| DRB% | 69.1% | 72.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.0% | 21.7% |
Game Analysis
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