Betting Lines
| Spread | VAN -10.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 149.5 Under |
| Money | VAN -650 MISS +470 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | VAN win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | VAN +3 | 139 | Won |
| Massey | VAN -17.0 (-14.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 153.3 (-14.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 94% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 97% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | VAN -13.9 (-10.9) | 152.9 (-13.9) | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | VAN -14.7 (-11.7) | 150.4 (-11.4) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | VAN -14.5 (-11.5) | 150.9 (-11.9) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | VAN -14.6 (-11.6) | 151.9 (-12.9) | 86% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 4, 2026 | VAN 89 – 86 MISS |
| Feb 22, 2025 | VAN 77 – 72 MISS |
| Jan 13, 2024 | MISS 69 – 56 VAN |
| Feb 4, 2023 | VAN 74 – 71 MISS |
| Mar 5, 2022 | VAN 63 – 61 MISS |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | VAN | MISS |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 27-9 | 15-20 |
| Conference | 11-7 | 4-14 |
| Home | 13-3 | 7-9 |
| Away | 8-4 | 3-7 |
| Neutral | 6-2 | 5-4 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 85.7 | 75.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 75.0 | 76.1 |
| Massey | 21.5 (#8) | 7.7 (#79) |
| Bradley-Terry | 3.47 (#15) | 1.22 (#78) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 4.50 (#16) | 1.58 (#81) |
| RPI | 0.647 (#11) | 0.530 (#115) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | VAN | MISS |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 48.9% | 44.0% |
| 3PT% | 36.4% | 34.2% |
| REB / G | 37.0 | 35.8 |
| OREB / G | 10.3 | 10.9 |
| AST / TO | 1.85 | 1.38 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 57.0% | 50.4% |
| TOV% | 13.1% | 14.5% |
| ORB% | 30.1% | 30.6% |
| FT Rate | 28.5% | 24.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.9% | 48.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.6% | 17.7% |
| DRB% | 72.3% | 68.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 31.0% | 28.3% |
Game Analysis
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