Betting Lines
| Spread | VAN -7.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 155.5 Over |
| Money | MISS +250 VAN -310 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MISS win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | VAN +3 | 175 | Lost |
| Massey | VAN -9.6 (+6.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 154.8 (+20.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 18% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 9% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | VAN -6.6 (+3.6) | 155.1 (+19.9) | 25% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | VAN -6.8 (+3.8) | 150.9 (+24.1) | 23% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | VAN -7.4 (+4.4) | 152.0 (+23.0) | 22% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | VAN -9.2 (+6.2) | 153.2 (+21.8) | 20% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 31, 2026 | VAN 71 – 68 MISS |
| Feb 22, 2025 | VAN 77 – 72 MISS |
| Jan 13, 2024 | MISS 69 – 56 VAN |
| Feb 4, 2023 | VAN 74 – 71 MISS |
| Mar 5, 2022 | VAN 63 – 61 MISS |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MISS | VAN |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 15-20 | 27-9 |
| Conference | 4-14 | 11-7 |
| Home | 7-9 | 13-3 |
| Away | 3-7 | 8-4 |
| Neutral | 5-4 | 6-2 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 75.9 | 85.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 76.1 | 75.0 |
| Massey | 7.3 (#85) | 19.9 (#14) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.88 (#96) | 2.94 (#23) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.18 (#94) | 4.13 (#17) |
| RPI | 0.510 (#160) | 0.620 (#20) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MISS | VAN |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.2% | 48.1% |
| 3PT% | 33.2% | 35.5% |
| REB / G | 34.0 | 35.7 |
| OREB / G | 10.3 | 10.5 |
| AST / TO | 1.46 | 1.73 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.3% | 56.0% |
| TOV% | 13.8% | 13.5% |
| ORB% | 28.9% | 30.9% |
| FT Rate | 24.9% | 29.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.5% | 48.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.1% | 17.9% |
| DRB% | 67.4% | 70.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 29.7% | 31.4% |
Game Analysis
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