Betting Lines
| Spread | VAN -0.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 152.5 Under |
| Money | VAN -120 MISS +100 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | VAN win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | VAN +5 | 149 | Won |
| Massey | MISS -0.2 (+5.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 152.8 (-3.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 49% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 34% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | VAN -1.4 (+3.6) | 153.1 (-4.1) | 57% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | VAN -0.8 (+4.2) | 149.0 (-0.0) | 58% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | VAN -1.6 (+3.4) | 151.8 (-2.8) | 55% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | VAN -1.1 (+3.9) | 152.6 (-3.6) | 58% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 4, 2026 | VAN 89 – 86 MISS |
| Jan 31, 2026 | VAN 71 – 68 MISS |
| Jan 13, 2024 | MISS 69 – 56 VAN |
| Feb 4, 2023 | VAN 74 – 71 MISS |
| Mar 5, 2022 | VAN 63 – 61 MISS |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | VAN | MISS |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 20-13 | 24-12 |
| Conference | 8-10 | 10-8 |
| Home | 14-3 | 13-3 |
| Away | 3-7 | 5-6 |
| Neutral | 3-3 | 6-3 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L4 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 78.9 | 77.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.3 | 71.7 |
| Massey | 12.6 (#44) | 16.0 (#26) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.65 (#28) | 3.25 (#10) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.93 (#37) | 4.24 (#10) |
| RPI | 0.571 (#53) | 0.621 (#16) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | VAN | MISS |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.6% | 44.5% |
| 3PT% | 32.5% | 35.1% |
| REB / G | 34.8 | 33.8 |
| OREB / G | 11.7 | 9.1 |
| AST / TO | 1.42 | 1.73 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.2% | 51.7% |
| TOV% | 14.2% | 12.6% |
| ORB% | 32.0% | 25.0% |
| FT Rate | 23.1% | 25.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 53.3% | 48.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.8% | 21.1% |
| DRB% | 71.2% | 69.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 25.2% | 26.5% |
Game Analysis
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