Betting Lines
| Spread | VILL -8.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 157.5 Over |
| Money | VILL -425 PROV +330 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | VILL win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | VILL +14 | 160 | Won |
| Massey | VILL -9.2 (+4.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 168.8 (-8.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 93% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 95% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | VILL -9.9 (+4.1) | 161.2 (-1.2) | 81% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | VILL -10.2 (+3.8) | 158.5 (+1.5) | 84% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | VILL -10.0 (+4.0) | 158.3 (+1.7) | 82% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | VILL -8.3 (+5.7) | 160.3 (-0.3) | 81% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 13, 2026 | VILL 88 – 82 PROV |
| Feb 15, 2025 | PROV 75 – 62 VILL |
| Jan 18, 2025 | VILL 75 – 73 PROV |
| Mar 2, 2024 | VILL 71 – 60 PROV |
| Feb 4, 2024 | VILL 68 – 50 PROV |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | VILL | PROV |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 24-9 | 15-18 |
| Conference | 15-5 | 7-13 |
| Home | 14-3 | 10-6 |
| Away | 9-3 | 3-9 |
| Neutral | 1-3 | 2-3 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 77.1 | 85.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.2 | 84.0 |
| Massey | 14.1 (#37) | 8.0 (#75) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.60 (#30) | 0.54 (#116) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.49 (#29) | 1.21 (#94) |
| RPI | 0.615 (#29) | 0.507 (#157) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | VILL | PROV |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.0% | 47.8% |
| 3PT% | 36.3% | 35.2% |
| REB / G | 35.6 | 38.7 |
| OREB / G | 12.4 | 11.1 |
| AST / TO | 1.43 | 1.33 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 54.2% | 54.9% |
| TOV% | 15.7% | 15.4% |
| ORB% | 35.7% | 31.6% |
| FT Rate | 21.8% | 29.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.7% | 51.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.6% | 14.0% |
| DRB% | 67.5% | 67.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.5% | 23.8% |
Game Analysis
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