Betting Lines
| Spread | PROV -2.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 134.5 Under |
| Money | PROV -138 VILL +110 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | PROV win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | VILL +11 | 131 | Lost |
| Massey | PROV -0.5 (-11.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 134.1 (-3.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 71% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 71% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | PROV -1.1 (-12.1) | 133.9 (-2.9) | 55% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | PROV -1.1 (-12.1) | 137.3 (-6.3) | 59% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | PROV -1.2 (-12.2) | 136.0 (-5.0) | 50% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | PROV -1.2 (-12.2) | 135.0 (-4.0) | 55% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 31, 2026 | VILL 87 – 73 PROV |
| Jan 13, 2026 | VILL 88 – 82 PROV |
| Feb 15, 2025 | PROV 75 – 62 VILL |
| Jan 18, 2025 | VILL 75 – 73 PROV |
| Feb 4, 2024 | VILL 68 – 50 PROV |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | PROV | VILL |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 21-14 | 18-16 |
| Conference | 10-10 | 10-10 |
| Home | 14-5 | 10-6 |
| Away | 4-7 | 4-8 |
| Neutral | 3-2 | 4-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L2 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.4 | 70.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.8 | 65.6 |
| Massey | 9.8 (#56) | 12.7 (#32) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.68 (#54) | 1.39 (#73) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.16 (#50) | 1.94 (#58) |
| RPI | 0.558 (#75) | 0.558 (#78) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | PROV | VILL |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.2% | 42.6% |
| 3PT% | 33.3% | 33.5% |
| REB / G | 36.0 | 35.4 |
| OREB / G | 9.1 | 9.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.12 | 1.35 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.4% | 50.6% |
| TOV% | 17.8% | 14.3% |
| ORB% | 27.0% | 26.6% |
| FT Rate | 23.3% | 22.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.2% | 48.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.7% | 16.4% |
| DRB% | 71.9% | 75.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.8% | 19.8% |
Game Analysis
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