Betting Lines
| Spread | VILL -4.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 136.5 Under |
| Money | VILL -213 PROV +163 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | VILL win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | VILL +18 | 118 | Won |
| Massey | VILL -3.9 (+14.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 136.7 (-18.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 54% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 51% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | VILL -1.9 (+16.1) | 139.9 (-21.9) | 61% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | VILL -3.1 (+14.9) | 138.9 (-20.9) | 66% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | VILL -3.1 (+14.9) | 141.3 (-23.3) | 65% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | VILL -1.8 (+16.2) | 139.6 (-21.6) | 61% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 31, 2026 | VILL 87 – 73 PROV |
| Jan 13, 2026 | VILL 88 – 82 PROV |
| Feb 15, 2025 | PROV 75 – 62 VILL |
| Jan 18, 2025 | VILL 75 – 73 PROV |
| Mar 2, 2024 | VILL 71 – 60 PROV |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | VILL | PROV |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 18-16 | 21-14 |
| Conference | 10-10 | 10-10 |
| Home | 10-6 | 14-5 |
| Away | 4-8 | 4-7 |
| Neutral | 4-2 | 3-2 |
| Last 5 | 0-5 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L2 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.2 | 72.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 65.6 | 68.8 |
| Massey | 11.0 (#44) | 10.6 (#48) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.15 (#90) | 1.64 (#64) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.60 (#87) | 2.26 (#48) |
| RPI | 0.561 (#81) | 0.568 (#73) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | VILL | PROV |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.2% | 46.0% |
| 3PT% | 32.6% | 32.1% |
| REB / G | 36.0 | 36.6 |
| OREB / G | 9.9 | 8.9 |
| AST / TO | 1.22 | 1.07 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.0% | 52.8% |
| TOV% | 15.0% | 18.3% |
| ORB% | 27.9% | 26.7% |
| FT Rate | 24.9% | 23.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.4% | 44.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.3% | 18.2% |
| DRB% | 74.7% | 72.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.4% | 20.8% |
Game Analysis
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