Betting Lines
| Spread | VILL -8.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 141.5 Over |
| Money | VILL -400 PROV +300 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | VILL win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | VILL +2 | 148 | Won |
| Massey | VILL -9.6 (-7.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 143.8 (+4.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 72% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 71% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | VILL -8.4 (-6.4) | 143.5 (+4.5) | 80% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | VILL -7.8 (-5.8) | 141.3 (+6.7) | 79% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | VILL -8.9 (-6.9) | 141.9 (+6.1) | 80% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | VILL -8.5 (-6.5) | 144.8 (+3.2) | 81% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 31, 2026 | VILL 87 – 73 PROV |
| Jan 13, 2026 | VILL 88 – 82 PROV |
| Feb 15, 2025 | PROV 75 – 62 VILL |
| Mar 2, 2024 | VILL 71 – 60 PROV |
| Feb 4, 2024 | VILL 68 – 50 PROV |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | VILL | PROV |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 21-15 | 12-20 |
| Conference | 11-9 | 6-14 |
| Home | 14-3 | 10-6 |
| Away | 3-8 | 2-9 |
| Neutral | 4-4 | 0-5 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L6 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.0 | 71.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.2 | 72.5 |
| Massey | 11.3 (#50) | 5.5 (#93) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.85 (#99) | 0.61 (#115) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.23 (#90) | 1.15 (#94) |
| RPI | 0.532 (#117) | 0.536 (#110) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | VILL | PROV |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 48.1% | 43.8% |
| 3PT% | 41.1% | 34.0% |
| REB / G | 34.7 | 39.4 |
| OREB / G | 10.5 | 12.1 |
| AST / TO | 1.40 | 0.94 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 57.3% | 51.5% |
| TOV% | 15.5% | 18.9% |
| ORB% | 34.3% | 35.2% |
| FT Rate | 21.9% | 23.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.8% | 46.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.3% | 13.3% |
| DRB% | 71.4% | 72.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.4% | 23.4% |
Game Analysis
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