Betting Lines
| Spread | VILL -2.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 156.5 Over |
| Money | PROV +124 VILL -148 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | PROV win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | VILL +6 | 170 | Lost |
| Massey | VILL -2.6 (-3.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 167.8 (+2.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 18% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 11% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | VILL -3.7 (-2.3) | 153.7 (+16.3) | 28% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | VILL -3.8 (-2.2) | 153.7 (+16.3) | 34% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | VILL -3.5 (-2.5) | 153.2 (+16.8) | 33% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | VILL -3.0 (-3.0) | 154.1 (+15.9) | 36% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 31, 2026 | VILL 87 – 73 PROV |
| Feb 15, 2025 | PROV 75 – 62 VILL |
| Jan 18, 2025 | VILL 75 – 73 PROV |
| Mar 2, 2024 | VILL 71 – 60 PROV |
| Feb 4, 2024 | VILL 68 – 50 PROV |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | PROV | VILL |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 15-18 | 24-9 |
| Conference | 7-13 | 15-5 |
| Home | 10-6 | 14-3 |
| Away | 3-9 | 9-3 |
| Neutral | 2-3 | 1-3 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 85.3 | 77.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 84.0 | 71.2 |
| Massey | 8.0 (#80) | 14.1 (#35) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.94 (#96) | 3.05 (#19) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.57 (#88) | 4.33 (#16) |
| RPI | 0.535 (#105) | 0.627 (#24) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | PROV | VILL |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.5% | 46.8% |
| 3PT% | 35.6% | 36.1% |
| REB / G | 39.3 | 36.1 |
| OREB / G | 10.8 | 12.5 |
| AST / TO | 1.40 | 1.47 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 54.9% | 55.0% |
| TOV% | 15.2% | 15.5% |
| ORB% | 30.0% | 35.8% |
| FT Rate | 27.1% | 20.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.7% | 50.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 14.6% | 18.8% |
| DRB% | 68.4% | 68.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.4% | 17.9% |
Game Analysis
Loading game analysis…
Failed to load game analysis.