Betting Lines
| Spread | VILL -1.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 142.5 Under |
| Money | PROV +125 VILL -145 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | PROV win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | PROV +13 | 137 | Won |
| Massey | VILL -2.0 (+15.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 144.1 (-7.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 46% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 47% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | VILL -1.3 (+14.3) | 140.7 (-3.7) | 45% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | VILL -1.2 (+14.2) | 139.7 (-2.7) | 49% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | VILL -1.5 (+14.5) | 139.0 (-2.0) | 47% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | VILL -1.1 (+14.1) | 141.3 (-4.3) | 46% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 31, 2026 | VILL 87 – 73 PROV |
| Jan 13, 2026 | VILL 88 – 82 PROV |
| Jan 18, 2025 | VILL 75 – 73 PROV |
| Mar 2, 2024 | VILL 71 – 60 PROV |
| Feb 4, 2024 | VILL 68 – 50 PROV |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | PROV | VILL |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 12-20 | 21-15 |
| Conference | 6-14 | 11-9 |
| Home | 10-6 | 14-3 |
| Away | 2-9 | 3-8 |
| Neutral | 0-5 | 4-4 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L6 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.3 | 74.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.5 | 68.2 |
| Massey | 6.3 (#89) | 11.4 (#53) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.45 (#134) | 1.17 (#78) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.94 (#102) | 1.69 (#74) |
| RPI | 0.511 (#160) | 0.529 (#121) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | PROV | VILL |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.6% | 47.2% |
| 3PT% | 35.9% | 40.2% |
| REB / G | 37.8 | 34.4 |
| OREB / G | 11.3 | 9.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.01 | 1.31 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.7% | 56.0% |
| TOV% | 18.8% | 15.9% |
| ORB% | 33.5% | 31.9% |
| FT Rate | 20.6% | 21.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.6% | 50.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 13.5% | 16.4% |
| DRB% | 71.0% | 71.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.3% | 21.5% |
Game Analysis
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