Betting Lines
| Spread | WIN -9.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 147.5 Over |
| Money | WIN -550 UNCA +410 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | WIN win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | WIN +13 | 155 | Won |
| Massey | WIN -9.0 (+4.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 148.9 (+6.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 87% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | WIN -8.2 (+4.8) | 145.6 (+9.4) | 79% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | WIN -8.3 (+4.7) | 147.2 (+7.8) | 81% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | WIN -7.8 (+5.2) | 142.5 (+12.5) | 80% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | WIN -7.4 (+5.6) | 143.9 (+11.1) | 78% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 17, 2026 | WIN 69 – 67 UNCA |
| Mar 8, 2025 | WIN 86 – 67 UNCA |
| Mar 1, 2025 | WIN 103 – 90 UNCA |
| Jan 18, 2025 | UNCA 93 – 84 WIN |
| Feb 3, 2024 | UNCA 82 – 78 WIN |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | WIN | UNCA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 23-11 | 15-17 |
| Conference | 13-3 | 8-8 |
| Home | 13-1 | 8-7 |
| Away | 7-9 | 4-9 |
| Neutral | 3-1 | 3-1 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 81.5 | 71.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 77.7 | 74.2 |
| Massey | 2.9 (#124) | -3.0 (#213) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.42 (#124) | -0.93 (#248) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.28 (#142) | -0.96 (#234) |
| RPI | 0.553 (#78) | 0.472 (#231) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | WIN | UNCA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.9% | 45.4% |
| 3PT% | 33.7% | 37.3% |
| REB / G | 38.9 | 33.7 |
| OREB / G | 13.8 | 9.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.39 | 0.82 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.3% | 51.5% |
| TOV% | 14.2% | 18.3% |
| ORB% | 34.8% | 29.7% |
| FT Rate | 30.4% | 28.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.9% | 51.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.3% | 15.6% |
| DRB% | 70.9% | 69.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 27.9% | 25.6% |
Game Analysis
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