Betting Lines
| Spread | UNCA -0.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 164.5 Over |
| Money | UNCA -115 WIN -105 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UNCA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UNCA +9 | 177 | Won |
| Massey | UNCA -2.0 (+7.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 171.4 (+5.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 65% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 66% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UNCA -1.3 (+7.7) | 165.7 (+11.3) | 66% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UNCA -2.1 (+6.9) | 165.3 (+11.7) | 66% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UNCA -1.8 (+7.2) | 163.2 (+13.8) | 61% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UNCA -0.9 (+8.1) | 164.0 (+13.0) | 67% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 31, 2026 | WIN 84 – 71 UNCA |
| Jan 17, 2026 | WIN 69 – 67 UNCA |
| Mar 8, 2025 | WIN 86 – 67 UNCA |
| Mar 1, 2025 | WIN 103 – 90 UNCA |
| Feb 3, 2024 | UNCA 82 – 78 WIN |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UNCA | WIN |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 21-11 | 23-11 |
| Conference | 11-5 | 11-5 |
| Home | 13-1 | 16-2 |
| Away | 6-9 | 5-8 |
| Neutral | 2-1 | 2-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 78.9 | 82.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 79.5 | 79.8 |
| Massey | -2.8 (#213) | -1.1 (#175) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.11 (#167) | 0.20 (#159) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.06 (#164) | 0.18 (#157) |
| RPI | 0.522 (#133) | 0.512 (#154) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UNCA | WIN |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.4% | 45.3% |
| 3PT% | 35.7% | 29.6% |
| REB / G | 34.0 | 37.9 |
| OREB / G | 11.2 | 12.4 |
| AST / TO | 1.24 | 0.80 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.6% | 50.9% |
| TOV% | 14.9% | 17.4% |
| ORB% | 30.7% | 31.9% |
| FT Rate | 25.1% | 33.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 54.1% | 50.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.7% | 20.4% |
| DRB% | 64.8% | 66.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 29.0% | 29.2% |
Game Analysis
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