Betting Lines
| Spread | WIN -1.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 162.5 Under |
| Money | UNCA +100 WIN -120 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UNCA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | WIN +19 | 153 | Lost |
| Massey | WIN -1.6 (-17.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 167.1 (-14.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 50% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 48% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | WIN -1.8 (-17.2) | 160.3 (-7.3) | 39% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | WIN -1.5 (-17.5) | 159.3 (-6.3) | 40% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | WIN -2.1 (-16.9) | 159.3 (-6.3) | 41% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | WIN -2.3 (-16.7) | 158.6 (-5.6) | 38% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 31, 2026 | WIN 84 – 71 UNCA |
| Jan 17, 2026 | WIN 69 – 67 UNCA |
| Mar 1, 2025 | WIN 103 – 90 UNCA |
| Jan 18, 2025 | UNCA 93 – 84 WIN |
| Feb 3, 2024 | UNCA 82 – 78 WIN |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UNCA | WIN |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 21-11 | 23-11 |
| Conference | 11-5 | 11-5 |
| Home | 13-1 | 16-2 |
| Away | 6-9 | 5-8 |
| Neutral | 2-1 | 2-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 78.9 | 82.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 79.5 | 79.8 |
| Massey | -2.3 (#206) | -0.7 (#172) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.38 (#138) | 0.40 (#137) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.28 (#150) | 0.36 (#143) |
| RPI | 0.551 (#86) | 0.532 (#118) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UNCA | WIN |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.2% | 46.8% |
| 3PT% | 34.5% | 33.0% |
| REB / G | 33.7 | 37.0 |
| OREB / G | 10.8 | 11.7 |
| AST / TO | 1.25 | 0.90 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.2% | 52.9% |
| TOV% | 14.6% | 17.7% |
| ORB% | 29.8% | 31.6% |
| FT Rate | 24.4% | 32.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 53.3% | 52.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.1% | 19.1% |
| DRB% | 66.1% | 68.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 28.2% | 26.4% |
Game Analysis
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