Betting Lines
| Spread | WIN -3.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 163.5 Over |
| Money | WIN -190 UNCA +160 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | WIN win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | WIN +13 | 193 | Won |
| Massey | WIN -4.6 (+8.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 166.8 (+26.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 60% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 63% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | WIN -4.5 (+8.5) | 160.9 (+32.1) | 71% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | WIN -3.6 (+9.4) | 159.7 (+33.3) | 73% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | WIN -4.2 (+8.8) | 159.7 (+33.3) | 70% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | WIN -4.4 (+8.6) | 160.4 (+32.6) | 72% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 31, 2026 | WIN 84 – 71 UNCA |
| Jan 17, 2026 | WIN 69 – 67 UNCA |
| Mar 8, 2025 | WIN 86 – 67 UNCA |
| Jan 18, 2025 | UNCA 93 – 84 WIN |
| Feb 3, 2024 | UNCA 82 – 78 WIN |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | WIN | UNCA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 23-11 | 21-11 |
| Conference | 11-5 | 11-5 |
| Home | 16-2 | 13-1 |
| Away | 5-8 | 6-9 |
| Neutral | 2-1 | 2-1 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 82.3 | 78.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 79.8 | 79.5 |
| Massey | -1.0 (#174) | -2.4 (#206) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.30 (#149) | 0.43 (#136) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.24 (#153) | 0.34 (#147) |
| RPI | 0.527 (#128) | 0.553 (#81) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | WIN | UNCA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.5% | 45.5% |
| 3PT% | 32.2% | 34.0% |
| REB / G | 37.0 | 34.1 |
| OREB / G | 11.6 | 11.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.88 | 1.26 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.5% | 51.3% |
| TOV% | 17.7% | 14.4% |
| ORB% | 31.1% | 30.1% |
| FT Rate | 32.4% | 25.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.5% | 53.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.0% | 17.9% |
| DRB% | 68.5% | 66.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 27.1% | 28.4% |
Game Analysis
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