Betting Lines
| Spread | UNCA -1.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 149.5 Over |
| Money | UNCA -125 WIN +100 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UNCA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UNCA +4 | 160 | Won |
| Massey | UNCA -1.8 (+2.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 151.9 (+8.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 74% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 72% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UNCA -2.3 (+1.7) | 149.2 (+10.8) | 72% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UNCA -2.2 (+1.8) | 147.9 (+12.1) | 63% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UNCA -1.3 (+2.7) | 147.9 (+12.1) | 63% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UNCA -1.4 (+2.6) | 148.4 (+11.6) | 61% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 31, 2026 | WIN 84 – 71 UNCA |
| Jan 17, 2026 | WIN 69 – 67 UNCA |
| Mar 8, 2025 | WIN 86 – 67 UNCA |
| Mar 1, 2025 | WIN 103 – 90 UNCA |
| Jan 18, 2025 | UNCA 93 – 84 WIN |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UNCA | WIN |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 22-12 | 17-15 |
| Conference | 12-4 | 8-8 |
| Home | 12-2 | 9-5 |
| Away | 5-7 | 6-9 |
| Neutral | 5-3 | 2-1 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L3 |
| Avg Pts For | 75.9 | 75.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.9 | 73.5 |
| Massey | -0.6 (#175) | 1.2 (#149) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.43 (#138) | 0.05 (#168) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.40 (#150) | 0.17 (#160) |
| RPI | 0.533 (#120) | 0.505 (#160) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UNCA | WIN |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.1% | 45.3% |
| 3PT% | 37.3% | 35.2% |
| REB / G | 33.6 | 34.6 |
| OREB / G | 9.7 | 10.3 |
| AST / TO | 1.07 | 0.80 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.7% | 52.0% |
| TOV% | 18.0% | 19.2% |
| ORB% | 29.0% | 30.6% |
| FT Rate | 32.5% | 36.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.6% | 48.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.4% | 18.1% |
| DRB% | 67.7% | 66.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 25.8% | 25.9% |
Game Analysis
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