Betting Lines
| Spread | WIN -5.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 152.5 Under |
| Money | UNCA +205 WIN -250 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UNCA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | WIN +2 | 136 | Lost |
| Massey | WIN -3.1 (+1.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 151.6 (-15.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 38% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 38% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | WIN -3.6 (+1.6) | 145.7 (-9.7) | 32% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | WIN -2.1 (+0.1) | 145.9 (-9.9) | 42% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | WIN -2.4 (+0.4) | 148.2 (-12.2) | 38% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | WIN -2.1 (+0.1) | 148.5 (-12.5) | 37% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 31, 2026 | WIN 84 – 71 UNCA |
| Mar 8, 2025 | WIN 86 – 67 UNCA |
| Mar 1, 2025 | WIN 103 – 90 UNCA |
| Jan 18, 2025 | UNCA 93 – 84 WIN |
| Feb 3, 2024 | UNCA 82 – 78 WIN |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UNCA | WIN |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 15-17 | 23-11 |
| Conference | 8-8 | 13-3 |
| Home | 8-7 | 13-1 |
| Away | 4-9 | 7-9 |
| Neutral | 3-1 | 3-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.9 | 81.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.2 | 77.7 |
| Massey | -3.5 (#225) | 3.0 (#125) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.03 (#258) | 0.05 (#167) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.09 (#242) | 0.03 (#162) |
| RPI | 0.467 (#238) | 0.531 (#116) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UNCA | WIN |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.8% | 43.2% |
| 3PT% | 37.6% | 33.3% |
| REB / G | 33.1 | 39.4 |
| OREB / G | 9.5 | 14.1 |
| AST / TO | 0.75 | 1.39 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.8% | 50.5% |
| TOV% | 19.0% | 14.0% |
| ORB% | 29.3% | 35.3% |
| FT Rate | 28.3% | 29.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.9% | 52.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.0% | 16.8% |
| DRB% | 68.5% | 70.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 26.3% | 26.7% |
Game Analysis
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