Betting Lines
| Spread | TOW -8.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 131.5 Over |
| Money | TOW -425 HAMP +330 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | TOW win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | TOW +32 | 132 | Won |
| Massey | TOW -7.5 (+24.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 125.9 (+6.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 83% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | TOW -4.3 (+27.7) | 129.6 (+2.4) | 68% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | TOW -5.5 (+26.5) | 130.7 (+1.3) | 70% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | TOW -5.1 (+26.9) | 126.4 (+5.6) | 68% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | TOW -5.0 (+27.0) | 127.0 (+5.0) | 67% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 7, 2026 | TOW 74 – 68 HAMP |
| Dec 31, 2025 | HAMP 63 – 62 TOW |
| Mar 1, 2025 | TOW 75 – 72 HAMP |
| Feb 17, 2024 | HAMP 67 – 61 TOW |
| Feb 9, 2023 | TOW 86 – 72 HAMP |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | TOW | HAMP |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 19-15 | 13-19 |
| Conference | 9-9 | 7-11 |
| Home | 11-3 | 10-2 |
| Away | 3-10 | 2-12 |
| Neutral | 5-2 | 1-5 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 67.1 | 68.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 66.4 | 72.1 |
| Massey | -0.7 (#179) | -5.0 (#244) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.01 (#166) | -1.00 (#253) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.11 (#172) | -1.47 (#266) |
| RPI | 0.525 (#123) | 0.445 (#269) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | TOW | HAMP |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 40.7% | 41.0% |
| 3PT% | 26.5% | 28.1% |
| REB / G | 37.8 | 35.2 |
| OREB / G | 14.0 | 12.2 |
| AST / TO | 0.86 | 0.92 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 45.5% | 46.1% |
| TOV% | 16.5% | 18.1% |
| ORB% | 36.8% | 34.2% |
| FT Rate | 20.6% | 28.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.4% | 50.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.4% | 18.2% |
| DRB% | 73.2% | 69.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.5% | 30.2% |
Game Analysis
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