All my failings exposed, gets a taste in my mouth as desperation takes hold "Love Will Tear Us Apart" - Joy Division
Atlantic Coast Conference · Tucker Center · January 31, 2026
Betting Lines
Spread FSU -3.5 Home covered
O/U 152.5 Over
Money FSU -166 / STAN +140
Model Predictions
Spread Total FSU win
Actual FSU +8 168 Won
Massey FSU -0.7 (+7.3)
Massey Totals 157.2 (+10.8)
Bradley-Terry 28%
Weighted B-T 22%
Efficiency Plus ML FSU -1.6 (+6.4) 150.0 (+18.0) 56%
Baseline Tuned ML FSU -0.7 (+7.3) 147.8 (+20.2) 53%
Baseline ML FSU -0.4 (+7.6) 147.6 (+20.4) 57%
Baseline Plus ML FSU -0.1 (+7.9) 150.1 (+17.9) 52%

Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →

Last 5 Meetings

Jan 26, 2025 STAN 7871 FSU
Nov 25, 2022 STAN 7060 FSU

Team Comparison

Record & Ratings FSU STAN
Overall 18-15 20-13
Conference 10-8 9-9
Home 11-6 12-6
Away 6-5 5-5
Neutral 1-4 3-2
Last 5 2-3 1-4
Streak L1 L2
Avg Pts For 80.4 76.0
Avg Pts Against 77.9 73.0
Massey 5.5 (#101) 8.0 (#76)
Bradley-Terry 0.47 (#122) 1.97 (#51)
W. Bradley-Terry 0.36 (#137) 2.25 (#58)
RPI 0.517 (#136) 0.592 (#42)
Shooting & Four Factors FSU STAN
FG% 42.0% 42.3%
3PT% 31.2% 34.1%
REB / G 37.2 34.6
OREB / G 13.4 12.0
AST / TO 1.21 1.09
Four Factors — Offense
eFG% 50.0% 49.6%
TOV% 16.4% 16.1%
ORB% 33.1% 33.3%
FT Rate 23.5% 29.4%
Four Factors — Defense
Opp eFG% 52.5% 51.4%
Opp TOV% 20.0% 19.3%
DRB% 67.2% 70.5%
Opp FT Rate 26.2% 30.7%

Game Analysis

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