Betting Lines
| Spread | FSU -3.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 152.5 Over |
| Money | FSU -166 STAN +140 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | FSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | FSU +8 | 168 | Won |
| Massey | FSU -0.7 (+7.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 157.2 (+10.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 28% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 22% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | FSU -1.6 (+6.4) | 150.0 (+18.0) | 56% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | FSU -0.7 (+7.3) | 147.8 (+20.2) | 53% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | FSU -0.4 (+7.6) | 147.6 (+20.4) | 57% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | FSU -0.1 (+7.9) | 150.1 (+17.9) | 52% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 26, 2025 | STAN 78 – 71 FSU |
| Nov 25, 2022 | STAN 70 – 60 FSU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | FSU | STAN |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 18-15 | 20-13 |
| Conference | 10-8 | 9-9 |
| Home | 11-6 | 12-6 |
| Away | 6-5 | 5-5 |
| Neutral | 1-4 | 3-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 80.4 | 76.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 77.9 | 73.0 |
| Massey | 5.5 (#101) | 8.0 (#76) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.47 (#122) | 1.97 (#51) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.36 (#137) | 2.25 (#58) |
| RPI | 0.517 (#136) | 0.592 (#42) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | FSU | STAN |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.0% | 42.3% |
| 3PT% | 31.2% | 34.1% |
| REB / G | 37.2 | 34.6 |
| OREB / G | 13.4 | 12.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.21 | 1.09 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.0% | 49.6% |
| TOV% | 16.4% | 16.1% |
| ORB% | 33.1% | 33.3% |
| FT Rate | 23.5% | 29.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.5% | 51.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.0% | 19.3% |
| DRB% | 67.2% | 70.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 26.2% | 30.7% |
Game Analysis
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