Betting Lines
| Spread | STAN -5.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 139.5 Under |
| Money | STAN -250 FSU +188 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | STAN win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | STAN +10 | 130 | Won |
| Massey | STAN -9.3 (+0.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 138.1 (-8.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 88% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 95% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | STAN -6.9 (+3.1) | 137.7 (-7.7) | 77% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | STAN -7.4 (+2.6) | 135.2 (-5.2) | 78% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | STAN -6.7 (+3.3) | 136.8 (-6.8) | 77% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | STAN -6.8 (+3.2) | 137.8 (-7.8) | 73% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 31, 2026 | FSU 88 – 80 STAN |
| Jan 26, 2025 | STAN 78 – 71 FSU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | STAN | FSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 14-19 | 9-23 |
| Conference | 7-13 | 7-13 |
| Home | 9-6 | 5-11 |
| Away | 2-8 | 4-7 |
| Neutral | 3-5 | 0-5 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L3 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.3 | 69.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.4 | 76.2 |
| Massey | 2.0 (#143) | -7.4 (#301) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.74 (#235) | -2.78 (#344) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.68 (#208) | -3.69 (#333) |
| RPI | 0.508 (#168) | 0.398 (#292) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | STAN | FSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.2% | 42.4% |
| 3PT% | 31.8% | 35.7% |
| REB / G | 35.6 | 32.0 |
| OREB / G | 8.8 | 9.5 |
| AST / TO | 0.93 | 0.93 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.7% | 47.6% |
| TOV% | 20.8% | 19.2% |
| ORB% | 27.5% | 27.8% |
| FT Rate | 28.9% | 27.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.2% | 50.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.2% | 18.2% |
| DRB% | 79.8% | 63.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.2% | 23.7% |
Game Analysis
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