Betting Lines
| Spread | STAN -4.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 147.5 Over |
| Money | STAN -195 FSU +165 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | STAN win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | STAN +7 | 149 | Won |
| Massey | STAN -2.2 (+4.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 149.8 (-0.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 72% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 63% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | STAN -3.8 (+3.2) | 144.0 (+5.0) | 73% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | STAN -3.4 (+3.6) | 145.7 (+3.3) | 70% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | STAN -3.3 (+3.7) | 145.8 (+3.2) | 71% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | STAN -3.3 (+3.7) | 146.8 (+2.2) | 71% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 31, 2026 | FSU 88 – 80 STAN |
| Nov 25, 2022 | STAN 70 – 60 FSU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | STAN | FSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 21-14 | 17-15 |
| Conference | 11-9 | 8-12 |
| Home | 17-3 | 11-5 |
| Away | 3-8 | 2-9 |
| Neutral | 1-3 | 4-1 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 73.5 | 74.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.7 | 72.5 |
| Massey | 8.1 (#73) | 9.2 (#66) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.70 (#59) | 1.35 (#75) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.55 (#81) | 1.71 (#75) |
| RPI | 0.571 (#59) | 0.564 (#68) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | STAN | FSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.7% | 46.8% |
| 3PT% | 33.9% | 32.6% |
| REB / G | 35.3 | 35.3 |
| OREB / G | 11.2 | 10.5 |
| AST / TO | 1.44 | 1.17 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.8% | 52.3% |
| TOV% | 15.0% | 17.3% |
| ORB% | 32.3% | 30.7% |
| FT Rate | 25.4% | 28.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.9% | 47.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.4% | 20.6% |
| DRB% | 74.2% | 69.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 27.4% | 28.1% |
Game Analysis
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