Betting Lines
| Spread | WAG -1.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 133.5 Over |
| Money | WAG -112 FDU -108 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | WAG win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | WAG +3 | 147 | Won |
| Massey | WAG -5.5 (-2.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 145.3 (+1.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 55% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 53% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | WAG -2.7 (+0.3) | 134.4 (+12.6) | 61% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | WAG -2.9 (+0.1) | 133.3 (+13.7) | 54% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | WAG -2.6 (+0.4) | 134.9 (+12.1) | 58% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | WAG -2.7 (+0.3) | 134.3 (+12.7) | 62% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 19, 2026 | FDU 68 – 61 WAG |
| Feb 8, 2025 | FDU 69 – 58 WAG |
| Jan 5, 2025 | FDU 71 – 59 WAG |
| Mar 2, 2024 | FDU 57 – 54 WAG |
| Feb 9, 2024 | WAG 66 – 62 FDU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | WAG | FDU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 14-17 | 11-21 |
| Conference | 8-10 | 8-10 |
| Home | 8-5 | 8-6 |
| Away | 6-12 | 3-15 |
| Neutral | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 0-5 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L4 |
| Avg Pts For | 69.6 | 65.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.7 | 72.7 |
| Massey | -9.7 (#307) | -12.0 (#333) |
| Bradley-Terry | -2.97 (#355) | -2.61 (#350) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -3.62 (#354) | -3.13 (#344) |
| RPI | 0.367 (#357) | 0.380 (#353) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | WAG | FDU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.0% | 39.0% |
| 3PT% | 38.5% | 29.9% |
| REB / G | 35.0 | 33.7 |
| OREB / G | 11.3 | 11.6 |
| AST / TO | 1.03 | 0.98 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.9% | 46.2% |
| TOV% | 18.8% | 17.7% |
| ORB% | 32.6% | 31.1% |
| FT Rate | 21.3% | 23.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.1% | 56.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 14.6% | 16.7% |
| DRB% | 68.0% | 71.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 33.5% | 26.2% |
Game Analysis
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