Betting Lines
| Spread | WAG -3.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 139.5 Under |
| Money | WAG -160 FDU +135 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | WAG win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | FDU +3 | 111 | Lost |
| Massey | WAG -6.0 (-9.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 139.7 (-28.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 67% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 68% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | WAG -3.3 (-6.3) | 137.2 (-26.2) | 65% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | WAG -2.8 (-5.8) | 137.0 (-26.0) | 54% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | WAG -3.2 (-6.2) | 139.2 (-28.2) | 60% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | WAG -3.7 (-6.7) | 139.3 (-28.3) | 63% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 31, 2026 | WAG 75 – 72 FDU |
| Jan 19, 2026 | FDU 68 – 61 WAG |
| Feb 8, 2025 | FDU 69 – 58 WAG |
| Jan 5, 2025 | FDU 71 – 59 WAG |
| Feb 9, 2024 | WAG 66 – 62 FDU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | WAG | FDU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 17-16 | 15-17 |
| Conference | 7-9 | 9-7 |
| Home | 7-5 | 7-7 |
| Away | 9-10 | 8-9 |
| Neutral | 1-1 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 62.0 | 73.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 64.1 | 78.4 |
| Massey | -8.1 (#301) | -10.8 (#325) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.51 (#309) | -1.59 (#314) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.13 (#318) | -2.21 (#323) |
| RPI | 0.440 (#295) | 0.429 (#311) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | WAG | FDU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 38.2% | 41.2% |
| 3PT% | 32.3% | 31.9% |
| REB / G | 34.7 | 36.4 |
| OREB / G | 10.9 | 11.3 |
| AST / TO | 1.22 | 1.14 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 44.5% | 47.4% |
| TOV% | 15.8% | 17.3% |
| ORB% | 29.1% | 28.3% |
| FT Rate | 19.4% | 24.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.3% | 53.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.5% | 19.2% |
| DRB% | 72.0% | 68.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.3% | 22.4% |
Game Analysis
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