Betting Lines
| Spread | WAG -2.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 131.5 Under |
| Money | WAG -150 FDU +130 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | WAG win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | FDU +12 | 130 | Lost |
| Massey | WAG -2.2 (-14.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 127.9 (+2.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 84% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 78% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | FDU -0.1 (-11.9) | 131.1 (-1.1) | 51% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | FDU -0.3 (-11.7) | 129.1 (+0.9) | 34% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | FDU -1.4 (-10.6) | 126.3 (+3.7) | 32% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | FDU -0.6 (-11.4) | 130.1 (-0.1) | 31% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 31, 2026 | WAG 75 – 72 FDU |
| Jan 19, 2026 | FDU 68 – 61 WAG |
| Feb 8, 2025 | FDU 69 – 58 WAG |
| Mar 2, 2024 | FDU 57 – 54 WAG |
| Feb 9, 2024 | WAG 66 – 62 FDU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | WAG | FDU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 14-16 | 13-20 |
| Conference | 6-10 | 8-8 |
| Home | 8-6 | 9-5 |
| Away | 6-10 | 4-15 |
| Neutral | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 0-5 |
| Streak | L3 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 57.5 | 70.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 63.0 | 74.4 |
| Massey | -11.7 (#341) | -9.7 (#319) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.47 (#298) | -2.34 (#337) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.68 (#327) | -3.07 (#342) |
| RPI | 0.427 (#304) | 0.385 (#344) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | WAG | FDU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 34.5% | 43.1% |
| 3PT% | 28.5% | 35.6% |
| REB / G | 33.7 | 29.7 |
| OREB / G | 11.3 | 8.9 |
| AST / TO | 0.82 | 1.14 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 39.8% | 50.1% |
| TOV% | 20.1% | 16.9% |
| ORB% | 30.5% | 24.9% |
| FT Rate | 18.2% | 19.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.9% | 54.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.8% | 15.3% |
| DRB% | 73.7% | 61.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 27.6% | 27.9% |
Game Analysis
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